The Rising Horror Stories of Pakistan

Source: South Asian Analysis, Article: Pakistan: What is its Frontline Status? Author: Kishan Bhatia. Dr. Bhatia is an analyst on contemporary developments impacting on South Asia and America . Email: kbhatia323@hotmail.com)
(The views expressed are his own)
In the land of pure the journalists are not safe (A. Cowasjee, Dawn, Sunday, 29 Mar, 2009) and neither are players of international cricket teams and the trainees at the police academy from murderous attackers. The attacks on the police academy located about six miles inside Pakistan from its border with India were taking place as the Dawn Op-ed writers were pontificating on the law and order situation in Pakistan.

A detailed report, “Militants give bloody show of Strength” by Syed Saleem Shahzad is available at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KC31Df02.html nuclear and missile armed Pakistani Generals are unable to maintain the writ of the nation by delivering law and order to a nation beleaguered by terrorists. So to the political masters, the Sahibs and Sahibas of Pakistan, I ask, what is the frontline status of Pakistan?The revolution of 1979 forced the Shah in to exile and brought Ayatollahs to power in Iran. America was locked in to the Cold War against communism promoted by the USSR. The global oil crisis of 1973-74 had made the world’s second largest oil producer Soviets petrodollars rich as oil prices in 1970s increased from $10 barrel to $80 a barrel. Soviets occupied Afghanistan in 1979.

These events collectively forced America to switch its frontline state strategy from Iran to Pakistan. America was joined by petrodollars rich Arabs of Persian Gulf and Red Sea – collectively the world’s largest oil producers – to provide material and financial aid to Pakistan under dictatorship of President Zia-ul Haq in 1980s to build a jihadi force of Afghan refugees and tribal Pashtuns east of the Duran Line to challenge Soviets in Afghanistan.

Soviets faced two wars in 1980s. First was economic and second was in Afghanistan. Economically USSR faced declining petrodollar revenues over a period of six years (1980-86) by as much as $20 billion a year as oil prices decreased by 80% to $17 a barrel. The Afghan war drained it militarily forcing Soviets to withdraw from Afghanistan in 1989 and the USSR disintegrated in the Gorbachev era (1986-91) as with a bankrupt treasury it was unable to meet its globally overextended economic obligations to spread communism.

The Soviets global expansion ambitions were rooted in petrodollars driven economy. The USSR imploded as petrodollars evaporated.America had replaced Pakistan for Iran as its frontline state in 1980s against USSR in the Cold War and Pakistan was assigned to challenge Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. America was joined by the petrodollars rich Arab states of Persian Gulf and Red Sea to provide Pakistan all material and financial aid to build jihadi forces.The petrodollar losses over six years (1980-86) suffered by the Soviets crippled its ability to continue occupation in a war torn Afghanistan. A limited success in Afghanistan in 1989 against Soviets was blown in to a myth that Afghanistan was the graveyard of empires. Well, does this myth also apply to Pakistan that tried and failed to establish a "strategic depth" with occupation of Afghanistan by Taliban (1994 - 2002)?After routing of al Qaeda and Taliban from Afghanistan in 2002, occupation of Afghanistan by allied forces and the six year (2003-08) American adventure in Iraq, the nuclear and missile armed Pakistani Generals and ruling elites were counting on America getting war fatigue to withdraw from Muslim lands.

Reality is that President Obama has announced that America will outlast terrorist in safe heavens of Afpakia. In announcing his new Afghanistan and Pakistan policy, President Obama articulated a clear and focused goal: “to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future."

From the USA perspective the heart of the problem lies in Pakistan and the goal is to ensure that it "cannot be used as a base to launch attacks against the United States and its allies." The larger vital national interests of USA are to prevent Pakistan's arsenal of nuclear weapons and materials from falling into the hands of terrorists such as Osama bin Laden and other radical Islamic extremists by taking control of the country. In 2009 America hyphenated Afghanistan and Pakistan giving birth to Afpakia after six years of failed attempts to coax Pakistan, an ally on WOT, and its ruling elites to contain and may be neutralize the terrorism originating from safe heavens of Pakistan. The recent events culminating with the Second Lahore Attack at a police academy, the Mumbai mayhem, the First Lahore Attack on visiting Sri Lanka cricket team, repeated disruptions in Western Pakistan of American supply lines to Afghanistan and the Swat treaty of 2009 has shown to America that it had to shift gears and find a new frontline state.

The significance of this transformation after a detailed reevaluation of political situations in South Asia is that the Obama administration according to its latest White Papers has now designated Afghanistan, not Pakistan to be its frontline state and al Qaeda and its associates in safe heavens of Pakistan to be its enemy target. Following the cliché, "You lead, follow or step aside" America has let Pakistani Army Generals know what their choices are. The new games have been initiated in South Asia by the Obama Administration. In what capacity Pakistan participates in the games remains to be seen.